Preseason Rankings
Conference USA
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
60 Western Kentucky 14.8%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 4 +8.8      +6.7 34 +2.1 109 70.6 134 0.0 1 0.0 1
99 Marshall 9.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 6 +4.5      +3.5 82 +1.1 133 84.8 5 0.0 1 0.0 1
102 Old Dominion 7.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 6 +4.2      -0.4 178 +4.6 45 62.4 329 0.0 1 0.0 1
132 North Texas 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +2.5      +2.8 100 -0.2 174 65.2 277 0.0 1 0.0 1
141 Louisiana Tech 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +1.7      +1.4 126 +0.4 153 67.3 223 0.0 1 0.0 1
157 Middle Tennessee 3.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 7 +0.5      -1.5 212 +2.0 114 65.8 260 0.0 1 0.0 1
158 Texas San Antonio 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 +0.5      +0.7 141 -0.2 173 76.7 32 0.0 1 0.0 1
163 Southern Miss 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 9 - 9 0.0      +1.5 123 -1.5 230 64.0 311 0.0 1 0.0 1
187 UAB 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -1.2      -0.8 190 -0.4 178 67.7 213 0.0 1 0.0 1
226 Florida International 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 7 - 11 -3.9      -2.8 255 -1.1 206 70.6 135 0.0 1 0.0 1
249 UTEP 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -5.1      -4.4 290 -0.7 193 68.4 197 0.0 1 0.0 1
266 Florida Atlantic 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 -5.9      -4.9 302 -1.0 204 71.2 119 0.0 1 0.0 1
301 Charlotte 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 12 -7.8      -3.4 267 -4.4 313 75.7 43 0.0 1 0.0 1
323 Rice 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 4 - 14 -9.9      -5.6 316 -4.3 309 68.0 207 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Western Kentucky 2.2 6.6 13.5 11.6 8.4 5.8 4.0 2.7 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Marshall 4.1 3.9 12.6 13.6 11.6 10.4 8.8 6.9 5.5 3.5 2.5 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.3
Old Dominion 4.2 3.9 10.9 13.5 12.0 9.7 7.7 6.7 5.4 4.1 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.2
North Texas 4.7 3.2 10.8 12.8 11.2 10.7 8.5 7.4 6.0 4.7 3.5 3.1 1.8 1.1 0.4
Louisiana Tech 5.5 2.3 8.5 11.1 10.6 10.4 9.5 8.9 7.1 6.5 5.1 3.8 2.9 1.8 0.9
Middle Tennessee 5.4 2.0 8.7 12.2 11.7 10.9 9.8 8.8 7.3 5.6 4.6 3.7 2.8 1.9 0.7
Texas San Antonio 6.6 1.8 5.6 8.5 8.5 10.1 10.3 10.4 9.8 8.4 7.6 6.0 4.7 3.1 0.9
Southern Miss 7.0 1.4 5.8 7.7 8.0 9.2 9.5 8.9 9.0 9.0 8.3 7.0 5.8 4.3 2.1
UAB 7.8 1.3 3.6 5.4 6.7 8.2 8.8 9.2 9.7 10.0 9.9 9.2 7.7 5.5 2.7
Florida International 8.9 0.8 2.1 3.5 4.6 6.2 6.7 8.0 9.4 10.4 10.5 10.9 10.4 9.4 6.0
UTEP 9.1 0.4 1.6 3.4 4.3 5.3 6.9 8.1 9.4 10.4 10.7 11.9 11.0 9.3 6.8
Florida Atlantic 10.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.5 3.8 5.0 5.6 7.7 9.0 11.1 13.0 14.1 13.9 10.9
Charlotte 10.6 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.1 2.5 3.7 4.8 7.1 8.1 10.1 12.6 14.1 15.6 17.3
Rice 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.1 4.1 6.2 8.0 10.2 13.6 19.2 30.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Western Kentucky 7 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.2 5.2 7.4 9.8 12.5 15.2
Marshall 9 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 5.9 8.4 10.6 12.5 13.3 13.3 11.0
Old Dominion 9 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.8 4.5 5.9 8.4 9.7 11.8 12.9 11.9 10.8
North Texas 9 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.8 4.8 7.0 9.1 11.0 11.8 12.0 11.8 9.8
Louisiana Tech 9 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.0 5.2 6.9 9.2 10.1 12.1 11.1 11.1 10.0 7.3
Middle Tennessee 9 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.1 4.4 5.8 8.5 10.7 12.2 12.1 12.4 10.9 7.3
Texas San Antonio 9 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.8 5.5 7.4 9.5 12.0 12.4 12.2 10.8 9.5 6.4 4.8
Southern Miss 8 - 6 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 4.3 6.2 8.6 10.1 10.3 11.6 11.1 9.9 8.9 6.4 4.1
UAB 8 - 6 0.2 0.5 1.8 3.3 5.7 8.4 10.6 11.6 12.3 11.2 10.3 8.9 6.2 4.1 2.9
Florida International 7 - 7 0.4 1.5 3.4 6.2 8.5 10.8 11.5 11.9 12.0 9.8 8.3 6.1 4.1 2.8 1.6
UTEP 7 - 7 0.3 1.4 3.8 6.2 9.0 11.5 12.3 12.7 11.6 10.4 7.6 5.5 3.5 2.4 1.2
Florida Atlantic 6 - 8 1.0 3.6 6.2 9.1 11.9 13.4 13.3 12.0 8.9 7.7 5.5 3.4 2.3 1.0 0.6
Charlotte 5 - 9 1.7 4.7 8.0 12.3 13.2 13.5 12.3 10.5 8.5 5.8 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.4
Rice 4 - 10 4.7 8.9 14.0 15.2 14.1 11.7 10.1 7.9 5.4 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Western Kentucky 6.6% 2.0 2.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Marshall 3.9% 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 3.9% 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Texas 3.2% 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
Louisiana Tech 2.3% 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 2.0% 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1
Texas San Antonio 1.8% 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 1.4% 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UAB 1.3% 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida International 0.8% 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
UTEP 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Rice 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Western Kentucky 47.9% 35.6% 12.3% 12   0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.4 2.7 3.6 4.9 9.5 9.1 4.9 2.2 0.8 0.3 52.1 19.1%
Marshall 18.9% 15.5% 3.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 2.8 4.1 3.7 2.4 1.5 0.8 81.1 4.0%
Old Dominion 16.5% 12.9% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 2.4 3.8 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.4 83.5 4.0%
North Texas 10.6% 9.1% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.5 0.9 89.4 1.6%
Louisiana Tech 8.3% 6.9% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.5 91.7 1.5%
Middle Tennessee 5.3% 4.7% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 94.7 0.6%
Texas San Antonio 6.2% 5.1% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 93.8 1.1%
Southern Miss 5.1% 4.2% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 94.9 1.0%
UAB 4.0% 3.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 96.0 0.5%
Florida International 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 98.3 0.1%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.3 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Rice 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Western Kentucky 47.9% 3.9% 46.0% 20.7% 8.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
Marshall 18.9% 2.1% 18.0% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 16.5% 1.9% 15.6% 4.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 10.6% 1.2% 9.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 8.3% 1.0% 7.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.3% 0.8% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 6.2% 0.8% 5.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 5.1% 0.8% 4.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 4.0% 0.6% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 1.7% 0.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 76.6 21.6 1.8 0.0
1st Round 98.9% 1.2 1.1 80.3 17.6 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 35.3% 0.4 64.7 32.7 2.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 13.0% 0.1 87.0 12.7 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.5 0.0
Final Four 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5 0.0
Final Game 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3